Math Modeling Seminar: Discrete-Time Models and a SARS CoV-2 Mystery
Math Modeling Seminar
Discrete-Time Models and a SARS CoV-2 Mystery: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Low SARS CoV-2 Disease Burden
Dr. Nourridine Siewe
Assistant Professor
School of Mathematical Sciences
Rochester Institute of Technology
*Dr. Siewe will be delivering this talk in person!
You may attend this lecture in person at 2300 Gosnell Hall or virtually via Zoom.
If you’d like to attend virtually, you may register here for Zoom link.
Abstract:
Worldwide, the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 virus has infected more than 440.8 million people and killed nearly 6.0 million. In Africa, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was approximately 11.5 million as of March 2, 2022, that is about 2.62 percent of the infections around the world. Many theories and modeling techniques have been used to explain this lower-than-expected number of reported COVID-19 cases in Africa relative to the high disease burden in most developed countries. We noted that most epidemiological mathematical models are formulated in continuous-time interval, and taking Cameroon in Sub-Saharan Africa, and New York State in the USA as case studies, in this paper we developed parameterized discrete-time models (DTM) of COVID-19 in Cameroon and New York State. We used these DTM to study the lower-than-expected COVID-19 infections in developing countries. We then used error analysis to show that a DTM captures the reported COVID-19 new cases in Cameroon and New York State more accurately than its corresponding continuous-time model. We also developed a new theory of model selection for a `better predictor' relative to either of the two possible epidemiological outcomes, namely, extinction or persistence.
Speaker Bio:
Dr. Nourridine Siewe is a broadly trained mathematician who enjoys addressing and solving problems that affect humans, animals and nature in general. He obtained his PhD from Howard University in 2016 after which he did a postdoc at NIMBioS (National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis), then another one at the University of British Columbia before joining RIT where he currently serves as an Assistant Professor since August 2020. Dr. Siewe is also a proud alumnus of the African Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS). My research focuses mainly on within-host mathematical models of cancer therapy and epidemiological models of the control of infectious diseases.
Intended Audience:
Undergraduates, graduates, and experts. Those with interest in the topic.
The Math Modeling Seminar will recur each week throughout the semester on the same day and time. Find out more about upcoming speakers on the Mathematical Modeling Seminar Series webpage.
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Event Snapshot
When and Where
Who
Open to the Public
Interpreter Requested?
No